基于多元线性回归对城郊选煤厂电耗的模块化分析

    Multivariate linear regression-based analysis of modularization of power consumption of Chengjiao Coal Preparation Plant

    • 摘要: 应用电耗模块化方法,在对城郊选煤厂生产系统中的电能分配情况进行分析的基础上,采取针对性措施来降低电耗,使吨煤电耗从2017年的4.49 kW·h降至2018年1—5月份的4.26 kW·h,利用2017年1—12月份全厂吨煤电耗与各个生产系统模块吨煤电耗的实际数据,通过多元线性回归法建立预测方程,并对方程进行残差分析和显著性检验,检验结果表明,所得方程预测效果良好,可以采用该模型预测未来全厂吨煤电耗,并利用它为全厂节能降耗提供辅助参考,使节电工作更有方向性。

       

      Abstract: Targeted measures are taken at Chengjiao Coal Preparation Plant to reduce the power consumption by using modularized power supply system for analysis of distribution of electricity in production systems. The power consumption per ton of raw coal treated was seen to be drastically reduced from 4.49 kW·h in 2017 to 4.26 kW·h in January-May, 2018. Based on the data of overall power consumption for treating each ton of raw coal recorded in the whole year of 2017 and the actually recorded power consumption data of each production module, a prediction equation is derived using multivariate linear regression method. Residual error analysis and significance test of the equation indicate that a remarkable prediction result can be expected. The model can be applied for predicting the future power consumption of the overall production system for treating each ton of raw coal. The predicted result may serve as a reference for effecting energy conservation and reduction of power consumption throughout the overall plant in a more effective and targeted manner.

       

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